ITALY

摘要

Forecasters have slashed their growth projections after Q4 GDP figures revealed that the economy slipped into technical recession. The -0.2% (q-o-q) contraction exceeded the -0.1 % dip seen in Q3, and Istat commented that a small increase in net exports was unable to offset a gloomy domestic demand performance. The latest setback, which developed against a shaky political and external backdrop, was widely expected, with The Bankof Italy and IMF reining in their respective 2019 GDP forecasts in January amid worsening business confidence and industrial output. The European Commission has also cut its estimate to 0.2%. Bank Governor Ignazio Visco claimed thatthe budget dispute between Rome and Brussels undermined domestic demand, due to ramped up financial volatility which has tightened banks' lending conditions and crippled private investment. According to the latest Bank Lending Survey, credit demand in Q1 2019 may drop to its lowest level since 2013. All the while, observers doubt that the government's policy plans will support demand, bemoaning the lack of focus in spurring jobs and investment. With arguably no room for additional fiscal stimulus - in order to abide by EU rules-the risks a prolonged recession are rising.