UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to lift the base rate from 0.5% to 0.75% on August 2, declaring that data had fallen broadly in line with expectations outlined in the May inflation report. The rate hike failed to provide any sanctuary for the retreating pound, however, recently down to a one-year low against the US dollar amid speculation that a no-deal Brexit scenario could become more likely. The MPC expects future interest rate increases at "a gradual pace and to a limited extent", although much may depend on decisive UK-EU discussions as the March 2019 exit deadline approaches. Q2 GDP growth offered some encouragement, advancing from 0.2% (q-o-q) in Q1 to 0.4%, due to a solid 0.5% (q-o-q) increase in services output, which gained impetus from a warm spell of weather and higher consumer spending related to the World Cup. Construction leapt by 0.9% (q-o-q), offsetting the disappointing -0.8% performance in Q1. The separate construction PMI reading for July also highlighted the continued upturn in activity. Some observers retain a cautious view of the economy's prospects after dismal trade and manufacturing figures, though. The Q2 trade deficit widened notably amid a sharp drop-off in car exports, while manufacturing output fell for a second straight quarter. These dynamics emphasise the heavy reliance on domestic demand to drive GDP growth.