SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LABOUR MARKETS

摘要

Significant Changes in the Labour Markets assesses trends in consensus forecasts for wage variables and unemployment in six of the major economies surveyed. A cyclical upturn in the global economy has bolstered job market fundamentals, and contributed to a broad improvement in unemployment rate forecasts. The US jobless rate is expected to fall below 4% this year, buoyed by the stimulus-driven economy which is expanding close to pre-financial crisis levels. Employment costs are on the up, too, although the overall boost to real incomes has been partly eroded by rising consumer prices. Japan's unemployment rate could average just 2.3% in 2019, the lowest in the G7, even as economic growth trudges along at 1.1% this year. Nonetheless, the jobs-to-applicants ratio is at historical highs, adding upward pressure on earnings. 2018 could mark the fastest rate of growth in cash earnings in more than 20 years (in several years earnings actually fell) following a sharp jump in expectations this month, linked to the government's encouragement of higher wages. UK unemployment has declined markedly since 2011, although forecasts suggest that this may plateau in 2019, possibly due to Brexit uncertainty. Wages have struggled to keep pace with higher inflation, which has curbed consumer spending. Euro zone job creation has picked up from a low base, supported by a revival in domestic and export demand. The impact on labour costs has been limited, prompting the ECB to prolong ultra-loose policy measures and leave interest rates unchanged until summer 2019 at the earliest.