JAPAN

摘要

The economy contracted by -0.6% (q-o-q) in Q3, greater than initially thought, as business investment plummeted by -2.8% (q-o-q) and exports dipped by -1.8% (q-o-q). The contraction was the largest witnessed since Q2 2014, and growth stood at just 0.1 % (y-o-y) in annual terms. However, following the disappointing national accounts release, statistics going into Q4 have thus far been generally solid. In October, retail sales advanced by 1.2% (m-o-m) and by 3.5% (y-o-y), the latter being its fastest gain of 2018, as consumers increased spending on items such as fuel and cosmetics. Meanwhile, October also saw an 8.2% (y-o-y) climb in exports, thanks to strong car shipments to the US. Elsewhere, industrial production expanded at its fastest pace since January 2015, by 2.9% (m-o-m), with manufacturers suggesting robust November outturns to come. Elsewhere, the services PMI displayed a solid reading of 52.3 for November. Nevertheless, the manufacturing PMI slipped to a 15-month low of 52.2 during the same month. This appears to be a weak spot in the economy at present, with data suggesting a slip in confidence amongst manufacturers which despite the upbeat production data, suggests there may be some shaky hard data to come. Looking ahead, the cabinet office's latest monthly report highlights a pick up in private consumption and company expenditure as reasons for its optimism.