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CONSENSUS FORECASTS: WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

机译:共识预测:世界经济活动

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Regional totals and the grand totals for GDP growth and inflation, are weighted averages calculated using 2015 GDP weights, converted at a verage 2015 exchange rates. These weights and rates were last updated in September 2016. Due to annual updates in exchange rates and GDP weights in July-September of each year, there will be differences in the Regional and World Aggregates in those months. Therefore, some aggregates may not be comparable to the aggregates from previous months. Current account forecasts given in national currencies on pages 7-24 have been converted using consensus exchange rate forecasts for the purposes of comparison. USA and Canada. The Euro zone aggregate is taken from our panel's latest forecasts (pages 18-19). The Euro zone current account data and forecasts are based on extra-euro zone data, i.e., an aggregate of the Euro zone member states' transactions with nonresidents of the Euro zone. The European Union data includes the Euro zone countries listed on page 18 plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, as well as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia (data taken from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts). Western Europe comprises the six Euro zone countries listed in the table above, plus Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Survey results for Japan plus sixteen other countries taken from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. Twenty-seven countries, including twelve European Union countries taken from the latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. Seventeen countries taken from the latest issue of Latin American Consensus Forecasts (inflation figures are on a December/December basis). Venezuela is excluded beginning in April 2018. Egypt, Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. The Eastern Europe and Latin American components of the World Total are taken from prior months surveys.
机译:区域总计以及GDP增长和通货膨胀的总计是使用2015 GDP权重计算的加权平均值,并按2015年汇率换算。这些权重和汇率最近一次更新是在2016年9月。由于汇率和GDP权重在每年的7月至9月进行年度更新,因此当月的区域和世界汇总数据会有所不同。因此,某些总量可能无法与前几个月的总量进行比较。为了比较的目的,已经使用共识汇率预测对第7-24页上以本国货币给出的经常账户预测进行了转换。美国和加拿大。欧元区汇总数据来自专家组的最新预测(第18-19页)。欧元区经常账户数据和预测基于欧元区以外的数据,即欧元区成员国与欧元区非居民交易的汇总。欧盟数据包括第18页上列出的欧元区国家,以及丹麦,瑞典和英国,以及捷克共和国,匈牙利,波兰,罗马尼亚,保加利亚和克罗地亚(数据来自东欧共识预测)。西欧包括上表所列的六个欧元区国家,以及奥地利,丹麦,芬兰,希腊,爱尔兰,挪威,葡萄牙,瑞典,瑞士和英国。日本以及其他16个国家/地区的调查结果取自《亚太地区共识预测》。最新一期《东欧共识预测》摘录的二十七个国家(包括十二个欧盟国家)。最新一期《拉丁美洲共识预测》中的17个国家(通货膨胀数据基于12月/ 12月)。从2018年4月开始不包括委内瑞拉。埃及,以色列,尼日利亚,沙特阿拉伯和南非。东欧和拉丁美洲构成世界总和的组成部分来自前几个月的调查。

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    《Consensus Forecasts》 |2018年第11期|32-32|共1页
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