ITALY AND THE EU-2019 BUDGET IMPLICATIONS

摘要

In this review, we take a closer look at Italy's budget situation following expansive 2019 budget measures proposed by the government. In an unprecedented move, the budget was rejected by the European Commission as it deviates significantly from EU deficit requirements, and Italy risks an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) launched against it. On November 13, the Italian government remained defiant about not amending its plans, for which it feels it has a mandate from the Italian electorate. We asked both our Italy and Euro zone panellists (on an "Answers Confidential" basis) fortheir assessment of the current situation and its possible consequences. We also compare Consensus Forecasts on GDP growth, the budget deficit and public debt as a % of GDP, alongside latest projections from the Italian government, Bank of Italy, European Commission and IMF.