SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM CONSENSUS

摘要

This month, we chart Significant Changes in Long-Term Forecast Trends for GDP and Inflation for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada. Long-term projections for the 6-10 year period average (in this case 2024-2028) are contrasted with those long-term aggregates surveyed all the way back to April 1996. It is this rolling 6-10 year trendline average which we show in the charts below. The 6-10-year trend averages are a measure of changes in potential growth and inflation expectations. This construct has two problems, however. One is thatthe 6-10 year horizon is a moving horizon shifting forward one year, each year. The other is that the number of panellists responding to our long-term surveys is smaller and therefore less representative than the numbers responding to our one and two-year surveys on pages 4-24.