Uncertainty in risk assessment: the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods

摘要

Based on previous work by the authors as well as work by some others, this book summarizes a vast amount of literature concerning the modeling of uncertainty and risk assessment. A central idea is to analyze why the usage of probabilities (frequentist or Bayesian) is not enough to describe the whole of uncertainty. Part of the reasoning (as put forth in some of the works quoted by the authors) comes from establishing the fact that not all uncertainties are of a stochastic nature, and, hence, instead of trying to define non-probabilistic methods, it would be enough to find better ways of measuring (frequentist approach) or modeling (Bayesian approach).