Curling's paradox

摘要

There is an age old debate in curling about whether it is better to be down one point with last shot, or ahead by one point without. The objective of this paper is to apply sensitivity analysis as a methodology to differentiate what appears to be two seemingly equal scenarios. A probability tree is developed for each scenario and a comparison is made based on an expected value basis. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine whether preference changes with changes in the key parameters. Indeed, preference is impacted by changes in these parameters. In general there is no universally preferred scenario; under specific conditions a general preference can be established. Ultimately, preference for one scenario over the other is based on an individual's perception of the probability of scoring with last shot.