The selection of technology forecasting method using a multi-criteria interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making approach

摘要

Technological forecasting is a tool for organizations to develop their technology strategies. The quality of forecasting is extremely important for the accuracy of the results and in turn company future. Therefore a proper selection methodology of forecasting technique that considers the characteristics of technology and resources needed such as cost, time is essential. On the other hand, although many forecasting techniques are available, there is a high uncertainty in choosing the most appropriate technique among a set of available techniques. In this paper interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is proposed for the solution of technological forecasting technique selection problem. The proposed method includes seven selection criteria and twelve forecasting technique alternatives. The methodology is applied for 3D TV technology. The results revealed that Fisher Pry method is found as the most appropriate method for forecasting since it has the highest closeness coefficient.