An agent-based model of residential mobility Assessing the impacts of urban regeneration policy in the EASEL district

摘要

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a unique tool which can be used to analyse the behaviour and interactions between sets of individuals and amongst organisational entities, including businesses, government and policy-makers. Well out of its infancy, ABM provides the benefit of observing autonomous behaviour at the individual level in a simulation environment. It will be shown that ABM can be used to create a model of housing choice behaviour and residential mobility of the East and South East Leeds (EASEL) district in the UK. By so doing, proposed housing policy in the form of urban regeneration can be analysed before implementation, thus providing insights on the likely outcomes of these policy initiatives. In this paper the case of the EASEL district is presented where, as of 2007, a series of regeneration schemes were outlined to bring physical and social improvements to this community. The demographic composition of the EASEL area is introduced. A general review and discussion of housing policy and the debate surrounding the usefulness of urban regeneration schemes provides the background to policy options and development priorities in this area. ABM is promoted as a fitting technique to be used to analyse the effects of a real housing policy on housing choice in this case study area. The methodological framework is presented, complete with a discussion on data, calibration and validation. Overall, the contribution of agent-based simulation for the evaluation of policy options is discussed.