A game-theory based agent-cellular model for use in urban growth simulation: A case study of the rapidly urbanizing Wuhan area of central China

摘要

Accurate modeling of urban growth is an extremely important component of urban geographic studies and is also vital for future urban planning. The trajectories of urban growth can be monitored and modeled by the use of geographic information system techniques, remote sensing data, and statistical analysis. In this study, we couple game theory with an integrated agent-cellular method to develop a model of the major determinants controlling urban development, which not only accounts for socioeco-nomic driving forces but also captures human actions. Wuhan, the largest city in central China, is undergoing rapid urbanization and is facing uncontrolled urban expansion. The city proper region of Wuhan is selected as the case study area to simulate urban growth during the period between 2003 and 2023. The results indicate that the social conflicts between the different stakeholders in urban development can be identified by utilizing a game tree. The game-theory based agent-cellular model is shown to be more effective than a pure cellular automata model in urban growth simulation. The results also show that, from 2013 to 2023, the urban area of the Wuhan city proper region is predicted to grow to 442.77 km~2, which is almost two times the area in 2003. This research is the first study to use empirical data and game theory to analyze the decision-making process in urban development in the Wuhan area.