Importance of scenario analysis in urban development for urban water infrastructure planning and management

摘要

Sealing of surfaces and land use change induced by population change puts pressure on urban water networks. Changes in paved areas can also increase the risk of pluvial flooding at places that have not been endangered before. For an anticipatory planning and adaptation of the existing water infrastructure to a dynamic and evolving system like a growing or shrinking city, a comprehensive urban development scenario analysis is essential. This work presents an urban development model designed especially for simplistic simulation of multiple predefined population and spatial scenarios and allowing for an integration with successive urban water network models.