A systems based approach for financial risk modelling and optimisation of the mineral processing and metal production industry

摘要

Large scale engineering process systems are subject to a variety of risks which affect the productivity and profitability of the industry in the long run. This paper outlines the short comings of the current methods of risk quantification and proposes a systems engineering framework to overcome these issues. The functionality of the developed model is illustrated for the case of mineral processing and metal production industries using a copper ore processing and refined metal production case study. The methodology provides a quantitative assessment of the risk factors and allows the opportunity to minimise financial losses, which would help investors, insurers and plant operators in these sectors to make appropriate risk hedging policies. The models developed can also be coupled with evolutionary or swarm based algorithms for optimising the systems. A numerical example is illustrated to demonstrate the validity of the proposition.