Financial risk management in the design of products under uncertainty

摘要

In this paper we extend a recently presented methodology for product design (Bagajewicz, M (2007). On the role of macroeconomics multi-scale planning and finances in product design. AIChE Journal, 53(12), 3155-3170) to consider uncertainty in the model parameters. We also extend the methodology to the discussion of alternative profitable scenarios and their associated risk. To illustrate the method, we picked wine making. To illustrate the method, we present a simplified consumer preference model, and show how vineyards can guide the selection of wine properties (wine quality), in association with a production rate and a selling price based on their attitude towards financial risk.