Statistical methods for assessing the contagion of spatial extreme events among regions

摘要

The impact that large values of a spatial process of maxima over a finite region of locations, R subset of R-2, can have on a surrounding region of R is an important issue in risk management and an accurate assessment of the impact can prevents the occurrence of other disasters. This paper provides a set of contagion coefficients, on the assumption of max-stability, that can be applied in environmental and societal phenomena. These coefficients can be written as functions of well-known extremal dependence coefficients, leading to a simple estimation method for them. The performance of the proposed estimators are analyzed with a max-stable maxima of moving maxima random field. Applications of the introduced coefficients to annual maxima precipitation in regions of the northeast of United States of America are described.