Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part Ⅱ. Seasonal forecasting

摘要

A seasonal forecasting system that is capable of skilfully predicting rainfall totals on a regional scale would be of great value to Ethiopia. Here, we describe how a statistical model can exploit the teleconnections described in part 1 of this pair of papers to develop such a system. We show that, in most cases, the predictors selected objectively by the statistical model can be interpreted in the light of physical teleconnections with Ethiopian rainfall, and discuss why, in some cases, unexpected regions are chosen as predictors. We show that the forecast has skill in all parts of Ethiopia, and argue that this method could provide the basis of an operational seasonal forecasting system for Ethiopia.