Impact of intraseasonal oscillation on the tropical cyclone track in the South China Sea

摘要

This study investigates the impact of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1970-2010. About one third of TCs in the SCS move eastward, while the other two thirds move westward. In the TC genesis peak seasons of June-October (JJASO), the westward moving TCs are controlled by the background TC steering flow of easterly, and the eastward moving TCs by the TC steering flow induced by the ISO. The outgoing longwave radiation and wind fields show that the eastward moving TCs were mostly along the main axis of strong TC steering flow anomaly of westerly associated with the ISO, while the westward moving TCs were only weakly associated with the ISO. An experiment performed with a simple two-level model further confirmed the result. The interannual variation of TC tracks in the SCS is also discussed. It is found that the steering flow anomalies in the SCS mostly favor eastward moving TCs in central Pacific (CP) El Nino and eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino years. However, the eastward flow anomalies are too weak to have strong influence on the majority of the TCs. During La Nina years, TCs in the SCS tend to move westward, possibly related to the westward steering flow anomalies.