A framework for managing public security risks with complex interactions in cities and its application evidenced from Shenzhen City in China

摘要

The ongoing rapid urbanization in cities across China has exposed urban areas to a broad range of public security risks with interaction in a great degree. Urban disaster risk management has limitations of treating risks in isolation and neglecting the widespread existence of risk interaction, thereby reducing the performance of risk mitigation. The clear conceptualization of identifying and understanding public security risks with interactions are also lacking in the existing literature. To bridge this gap, this study develops a framework for identifying, measuring, and analyzing public security risks and their interactions to provide insights into designing effective risk mitigation strategies from system thinking perspectives. An approach to identify potential risk interactions and measure their strength is presented. In particular, it demonstrates how to use Social Network Analysis to explore the structural characteristics of public security risk network and the manner in which risk mitigation strategies are designed by integrating individual and networked risk assessments. A case study in Shenzhen City, China is conducted for illustrating a practical application of the developed framework to address interweaving public security risks effectively and efficiently, with an added value to the traditional risk management paradigm. This study not only presents an innovative perspective of conducting urban disaster risk management in rapidly urbanizing cities but also provides a practical approach for urban managers to design effective risk mitigation strategies to build sustainable and resilient cities.