N. American Market Improving; SARS Scrambling Global Picture

摘要

Although there are conflicting signs I believe the N. American electronics mar-ket has finally "turned the corner" and is now growing on a sustainable basis. Unfortunately, in addition to real growth, some of our gains are due to the SARS crisis in Asia and possible inventory building. However business does look like its improving. Consider the following: Electronic equipment orders are growing―up 13% from November 2002 to March 2003 (Chart 1). All equipment end markets are expanding―computers, communication, instruments and military (Chart 2). Electronic equipment inventories are minimal, the lowest levels since 1994, down 32% from peak in February 2001 (Chart 3). Iraqi war activi- ties have lessened, allowing more focus on the domestic economy. Consumer Confidence Index is up substantially―81.0 in April from 61.4 in March. Oil prices have dropped, $28.25/barrel in April vs. $33.55/barrel in March.