This Stat Says Iran Is Ripe for Change

摘要

In 2008, U.S. demographer Richard Cincotta predicted that Tunisia-then under a well-established authoritarian regime -would probably democratize before 2020 based on the age structure of its population. When Cincotta aired the forecast at a meeting of Middle East experts sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, the audience burst into laughter. "One well-known Middle East scholar laughed until he was in tears," Cincotta recalled in a 2017 paper explaining his age-structural theory of state behavior. "Because the laughter did not subside, the session's chair ended the question and answer session."