Until recently, the procedure with new tendered service awards produced entirely predictable results. If route X needed 17 new buses then the operator would order that number plus a percentage of spares, 19 being likely in that case. Now there is a new factor in the equation - central London, with its drastic need to reduce emission levels quickly. This has already resulted in hybrid buses of one sort or another becoming the norm. But now sometimes after new buses have been awarded against a contract, they go somewhere else altogether.
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