Modeling the Effects of Varicella Vaccination programs on the Incidence of Chickenpox and Shingles

摘要

Two possible dangers of an extensive varicella vaccination program are more vari- cella (chickenpox) cases in adults, when the complication rates are higher, and an increase in cases of zoster (shingles). Here an age-structured epidemiologic-demo- graphic model with vaccination is developed for varicella and zoster. Parameters are estimated from epidemiological data. This mathematical and computer simu- lation model is used to evaluate the effects of varicella vaccination programs.