The REFUEL EU road map for biofuels in transport: Application of the project's tools to some short-term policy issues

摘要

The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biofuels. The REFUEL project provides several ingredients for such a strategy. Analyses in this project indicate that domestically produced biofuels can cover a significant share of EU fuel demand in the coming decades, with the EU-12 new member states and Ukraine as most promising regions. This potential can be realised with residual streams and on existing agricultural land, without conversion of e.g. nature reserves. Second generation biofuels are essential for the long-term success of biofuels due to their superior performance in many ways. But generally, the key challenge for the near future would be how to enhance the development of biofuels in a responsible way, i.e. stimulating the production chains with the best performance, and preventing negative impacts e.g., by paying careful attention to possible system impacts of biofuel production such as indirect land use changes and rising food prices. Finally, 2nd generation biofuels require specific policy: the precursor role of 1st generation is overrated, both in technical terms as well as in their role as market precursors. When it comes to synergies, 2nd generation biofuels might benefit more from other developments in the energy sector, such as initiatives in co-firing of biomass for (heat and) power, than from 1st generation biofuels, also because of the public resistance that the latter induce.