Estimating daily and intra-daily PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) in Israel using a spatio- temporal hybrid modeling approach

摘要

Satellite-based particulate matter (PM) models provide spatially and temporally resolved estimations, allowing greater spatial-temporal coverage compared to sparse ground monitoring stations. The spatio-temporal resolution of these models can be improved using aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from various satellite platforms with different overpass times which can capture possible changes in diurnal aerosol concentrations. Israel is characterized by diverse geo-climatic regions and it is subjected to frequent dust storms events. Our goal was to estimate PM10and PM2.5concentrations in Israel on daily and intra-daily (mean PM around the Aqua and Terra overpasses) temporal resolutions and to assess the differences between these time windows. A hybrid modeling approach that consists of three stages was used enabling spatially continuous PM estimations at 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. The model was calibrated on a daily basis applying a mixed modeling approach using MODIS-based MAIAC AOD and various spatial and temporal predictors. It was found that in certain urban areas the measured and estimated PM concentrations during the satellite overpass (Terra or Aqua) were higher than the mean daily PM. The models performed well showing cross-validated R2that ranged between 0.82 and 0.92. Mean estimated PM for the study period (2005–2015) during days with no dust events showed different spatial patterns for the daily and intra-daily estimations and revealed areas in Israel that are affected by high PM concentrations (mainly industrial or dense urban areas). Estimations from these models are useful for epidemiological research and might contribute to environmental regulatory purposes by focusing the efforts of PM pollution reduction at the identified polluted areas.