Dennis V. Lindley: Understanding Uncertaintyjohn Wiley & Sons Limited, 2006, 272 Pp. 60,99 Eur

摘要

"The object of this book is to tell you about work that has been done in the twentieth century about uncertainty."rnThe book is a very valuable introduction into the field of uncertainty. Within 13 chapters the author gives an overview of the most important developments.rnChapter 1 deals with the general concept of uncertainty and presents a lot of examples. Chapter 2 (Stylistic Questions) contains some basic discussion on facts, emotion, simplicity, among others, and furthermore a little mathematical tutorial. In Chapter 3 the examination of uncertainty starts. The author emphasizes that the probability of an event depends on the event and on the individual expressing the probability. Probability is always a personal probability. Chapter 3 contains also the analysis of odds. The following chapter (Two Events) contains a discussion of independence and association; there are also important issues not mentioned in many textbooks, e.g.: Probabilities do not alter by a change from supposition to fact (4.6); distinction between seeing and doing concerning conditional probabilities (4.7).