Risk-taking in entrepreneurial decision-making: A dynamic model of venture decision

摘要

On the basis of the seminal work of Kahneman and TverskyEconometrica, 47(2): 263-292 (1979), this research extends the boundaries of prospect theory in investigating determinants and temporal variation of risk-taking in entrepreneurial decisions, such as creating a new business organization or investing a risky business project. The two experimental studies (1) identify entrepreneurial risk-taking in the gain situation and find reversal of risk preference after a dynamic entrepreneurial learning process, indicating that the framing effect of prospect theory in explaining entrepreneurial risk-taking is conditional; (2) instead of weights, subjective judgment of the possibility of success of a risky project (subjective probability) consistently plays central moderating role in entrepreneurial decisions under uncertainty, and (3) the different effects of subjective probability in the two studies reveal that novice decision-makers are more value-driven, whereas experienced decision-makers, particularly under low probability conditions, tend to be more risk averse regardless of the value of a risky project perceived as long as they have a lack of confidence in eventual success.