Uncertainty and Feasibility Studies: An Italian Case Study

摘要

Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value, but they tend to provide single-point analysis based upon a single set of "likely" inputs. This paper examines the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian municipality. The approach presented allows the appraiser to address issues of uncertainty and to provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a two-dimensional technique to distinguish between "uncertainty" and "variability" and create a more robust model.