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The Storms Behind, the Markets Ahead

机译:背后的风暴,未来的市场

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摘要

As 2006 begins, one can sit back and marvel at how the economy has weathered the storms of the past year. These storms came in a number of forms, ranging from continued geopolitical risk to the hurricanes that devastated the South to the record deficit. There is little respite in sight on the trade front as the global economy suffers and demand is dampened for weak dollar goods and services. China and other low-cost competitors continue to flood the United States with imports that consumers cannot seem to resist In spite of these and other challenges, the gross domestic product continues to improve, with prospects that the economy will continue to expand over the near term. Capital flows remain strong overall, with low interest rates helping fuel a supply of debt and equity capital that is more than adequate to support the current real estate market. The residential market remains relatively strong, although it is likely that the bull run in single-family housing has played out. Despite low yields that have emerged over the past several years, the real estate market seems to be fairly priced in terms of investor demands. While it is likely that prices will soften over the next several years, improving market fundamentals might be adequate to sustain current prices and avoid the "bubble" that some have predicted would burst both the residential and commercial markets. In terms of real estate fundamentals, the general outlook is for gradual improvement. Strong investor demand is sufficient to withstand periodic setbacks as the industry adjusts to a more competitive capital arena and attention shifts back to pricing risk.
机译:在2006年伊始,人们可以坐下来惊叹于经济如何度过了过去的一年。这些风暴以多种形式出现,从持续的地缘政治风险到破坏南方的飓风到创纪录的赤字。随着全球经济的疲软以及对美元商品和服务疲软的需求受到抑制,在贸易方面几乎没有喘息的机会。中国和其他低成本竞争对手继续向美国涌入大量消费者似乎无法抵抗的进口商品尽管存在这些挑战和其他挑战,但国内生产总值(GDP)仍在继续改善,并有望在近期内继续经济增长。总体而言,资本流动保持强劲,低利率有助于推动债务和股本资本的供应,足以支撑当前的房地产市场。住宅市场仍然相对强劲,尽管单户住宅的牛市可能已经结束。尽管过去几年出现了低收益,但就投资者的需求而言,房地产市场似乎定价合理。尽管未来几年价格可能会走软,但改善市场基本面可能足以维持当前价格并避免某些人曾预测的“泡沫”将使住宅和商业市场破裂。就房地产基本面而言,总体前景尚待逐步改善。强劲的投资者需求足以承受周期性的挫折,因为该行业正在适应更具竞争性的资本领域,而注意力又转移到了定价风险上。

著录项

  • 来源
    《The Appraisal Journal》 |2006年第1期|p.5-13|共9页
  • 作者

    James R. DeLisle;

  • 作者单位

    Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 f;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 23:27:36

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