An optimized NGBM(1.1) model for forecasting the qualified discharge rate of industrial wastewater in China

摘要

The Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model NGBM(1,1) performs well in the simulation and forecasting of series having non-linear variations. To improve the simulation and forecasting accuracy, the parameters optimization of an NGBM(1,1) model is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using LINGO (an Operational Research software) in this paper. The optimized result has been verified by a numerical example of a fluctuating sequence and a case study of opto-electronics industry in Taiwan. Comparisons of the obtained simulation results from the optimized combinatorial NGBM(l.l) model with the traditional one demonstrates that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the NGBM(1,1) model. The optimized NGBM(l.l) model is used to simulate and forecast the annual qualified discharge rate of industrial wastewater in 31 provinces of China for the period from 2001 to 2011. The modeling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding environmental management.