Accurate Forecasts?Precisely!

摘要

Reader B.K. writes, "We struggle to reach the accuracy we need in our forecasting. Sometimes, our forecasts are almost perfect; other times, we're not even close. I know there's an old expression that says every forecast is wrong, but is there something fundamental we may be missing?" Start by considering the two ideas of accuracy and precision. Accuracy and precision may sound like the same thing, but they are distinct entities in the science and business fields. Accuracy measures how close estimates are to the true or desired value. Precision measures the degree to which work arrives at the same results over many iterations with similar conditions.