Lessons from a tragedy

摘要

DON'T SPECULATE. This is a common rebuke directed at those discussing a recent aviation accident, and it's been drilled into our culture. We've learned that the root cause of an accident can be quite different than what may seem obvious. It's a sensible posture that has kept us (and some public agencies) from acting on erroneous theories with ineffective or even counterproductive remedies. Often, though, the "don't speculate" principle is misapplied to mute all discussion until an investigation is fully complete, thereby delaying an opportunity to reinforce important learning.