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Predicting Major Economic Events with Accuracy: A New Framework for Scientific Macroeconomic Models

机译:准确预测重大经济事件:科学宏观经济模型的新框架

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Despite intense studies over the last several hundred years, the questions about causes, forecasting, and prevention of economic crises remain unsolved. The poor performance of macroeconomic models during the Great Recession of 2008 has forced many economists to reexamine macroeconomic theories and search for credible alternatives to the agent-based and general-equilibrium models now currently used by most economists. This article derives a new category of macroeconomic model and applies it conceptually to explain the causes of economic crises. This model, known as the indeterministic balance sheet plus (IBS+) model, is a special breed of accounting models. It takes an indeterministic view of future balance sheets. This article proposes a classification of causes of economic crises using IBS+ models to analyze balance sheets of key economic sectors. Most economic crises are caused by mismanagement of balance sheets by key economic players, not by any fundamental flaw of capitalism. The frequency of economic crises can be minimized by proper risk management practices, but economic crises can never be completely eliminated. Historically, treating mismanagement of balance sheets as the main cause of economic crises is a generalization of Austrian business cycle theory, Fisher's debt deflation theory, and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.
机译:尽管在过去的数百年中进行了深入的研究,但有关经济危机的原因,预测和预防的问题仍未解决。在2008年大萧条期间,宏观经济模型的表现不佳,迫使许多经济学家重新审视宏观经济理论,并寻找目前大多数经济学家目前使用的基于主体和一般均衡模型的可靠替代方案。本文衍生出一类新的宏观经济模型,并将其在概念上应用于解释经济危机的成因。该模型称为不确定资产负债表加(IBS +)模型,是一种特殊的会计模型。它对未来资产负债表有不确定的看法。本文提出了使用IBS +模型对主要经济部门的资产负债表进行分析的经济危机原因分类。大多数经济危机是由关键经济主体对资产负债表的管理不当引起的,而不是由资本主义的任何根本缺陷造成的。通过适当的风险管理措施可以最大程度地减少经济危机的发生频率,但是永远不能完全消除经济危机。从历史上看,将资产负债表管理不善作为经济危机的主要原因是奥地利经济周期理论,费舍尔债务通缩理论和明斯基金融不稳定假设的概括。

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