Fertility Decline in the Developed World: Where Will It End?

摘要

Conventional theories have little to say about the level at which fertility will stabilize at the end of the demographic transition. It is often assumed or implied that replacement fer- tility of about 2.1 births per woman will pre- vial in the long run. This assumption is, for example, incorporated in past population pro- jections of the United Nationals and World Bank (medium variants).