Housing, Credit Constraints, and Macro Stability: The Secondary Mortgage Market and Reduced Cyclicalty of Residential Investment

摘要

Like U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP), real residential investment has seen a marked moderation in volatility over the last two decades. Figure 1 plots real residential investment as a percent of potential real GDP (RESINV) along with GAP, the percentage by which actual fell short of potential real GDP over the 1968-2004 period. Notably, this moderation in RESINV occurred despite widespread problems in the banking system and a recession during the 1990-1991 period, the extended economic boom of the 1990s, and the 2001 recession and subsequent recovery.