Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons

摘要

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee and the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) Business Cycle Dating Committee date business cycle turning points using a small number of aggregate measures of real economic activity. For example, in its memorandum explaining the December 2007 peak (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 2008), the NBER committee mentioned that it considers five series, quarterly real GDP and the "big four" monthly series, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and nonfarm employment. (These series do not in general receive equal weight.)