Preliminary reliability and safety assessment methodology for trans-atmospheric transportation systems

摘要

Purpose This paper aims to propose a methodology for a safety and reliability assessment for the conceptual and preliminary design of very complex and disrupting innovative systems like trans-atmospheric vehicles. The proposed methodology differs from existing ones because it does not rely on statistical data at aircraft-level but exploits the statistical population at components-level only. For the sake of clarity, the paper provides some preliminary results of the application of the methodology at system level. The example deals with the safety and reliability assessment of a very complex propulsion system aimed at guaranteeing vertical take-off and landing capabilities of a suborbital vehicle.