Management strategies for Indonesian rubber production under yield and price uncertainty: a bioeconomic analysis

摘要

A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables. Solutions, in terms of optimal levels for decision variables are found using a Monte Carlo stochastic framework. These solutions were used to derive risk-efficient frontiers corresponding to different levels of the decision variables. The results underline the importance of including uncertainty in dynamic bioeconomic systems since profits under uncertainty turned out to be quite different from those obtained with prices and climate assumed to be constant.