'The future that has already happened'

摘要

I am writing this article over the winter holidays, which have always served as a time for both reflecting on the past and preparing for the future—particularly with the onset of a new year. Importantly, SAE not only begins a new year in 2006; it embarks upon a second century of service to the mobility industry and to humanity at large. A number of futurists come out of the woodwork at this time of year, announcing their predictions to the world. Some, in an attempt to prove their talent, reflect and measure on their past predictions; but they rarefy (if ever) acknowledge those that did not turn out to be quite so accurate. They seem to calculate their batting average based on the number of predictions that turned out to be correct. If they are able to get away with that, I do not blame them for not drawing attention to their errors or to the numerous occurrences that they did not predict. But similar actions in the business world can result in dire consequences.