Prediction of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations from the meteorological forecast and artificial neural network in L'Aquila, Abruzzo (Central Italy)

摘要

In a previous work a 1-year time series of fungal spore concentrations was used to calibrate an artificial neural network for the estimation of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations associated with observed meteorological variables in the atmosphere of L'Aquila, Italy. In this article the possibility to use the neural model calibrated with observed meteorological variables to predict the future fungal spore concentration from meteorological forecast is investigated. The results show that the proposed technique appears to be a suitable device to operationally predict the Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations a few days in advance. Emphasis is given to the actual use of these predictions for establishing a preventive strategy for allergy sufferers and for an appropriate use of fungicide treatments in agricultural activities, avoiding unsafe and useless pollution of the atmosphere, crops and fields.