Applying Scenario Planning Across Multiple Levels of Analysis

摘要

Planning for an uncertain future is problematic yet necessary for organizations to remain viable. Scenario planning helps organizations to increase their capacity to learn and adapt af-the future unfolds and results in strategies that more effectively help organizations prepare for an uncertain future. Because organizations are complex, multilevel systems, scenario planners must also focus the complexities of learning across multiple levels of analysis. Fostering the learning processes that support effective implementation of strategy across multiple levels of analysis requires attention to the elements and relationships that drive learning from one level to the next. Few strategies for learning fully articulate and integrate the characteristics of learning at different levels of analysis. This article identifies key elements and relationships constituting learning at multiple levels of analysis-individual, group, organization, and industry-and provides an integrated view of multilevel learning in organizational settings to guide and support strategic planning and implementation.