PATTERN-ORIENTED INVERSE SIMULATION FOR ANALYZING SOCIAL PROBLEMS: FAMILY STRATEGIES IN CIVIL SERVICE EXAMINATION IN IMPERIAL CHINA

摘要

This paper proposes an agent-based model to investigate the role of parental relationships and intergenerational reproduction of cultural capital to understand the long-term professional success of an elite family line during the Ming and Qing dynasties in imperial China. We implemented the model by a new method: The pattern-oriented inverse simulation (POIS) method, where multiple patterns observed in an elite family line are employed to guide the model design and test alternative assumptions as family strategies. A genetic algorithm (GA) based inverse technique is applied to fit the simulation outputs with actual data grouped in time intervals as patterns. The simulation results discovered family strategies sustained by the examination systems in imperial China, which relates to important sociological theories on the impact of the intergenerational reproduction of cultural capital within family circles on social inequality in the individual entry in labor and professional markets. The case studyalso proved that the new methodology of POIS can improve our current practices for systematically exploring simulation parameter space and fit model output with actual data.