Enhanced predictive modelling process of broadband services adoption based on time series data

摘要

In this paper, the importance of the predictive modelling process of broadband services adoption is described. A detailed overview of different analytical models used for prediction, i.e., fitting and forecasting processes of broadband services adoption are presented. Furthermore, a comparison of several analytical models commonly used for prediction of broadband adoption is conducted. In order to more accurately fit to the existing broadband adoption time series data, and to forecast the future broadband services adoption paths, the features of the most accurate common predictive models have been identified for different phases of broadband services adoption. Considering the given results, usage of additional models in the predictive modelling process is analyzed. The objective of these analyses is set to improve the accuracy of the existing predictive modelling process. The accuracy of the predictive modelling process using additional models is tested and compared in different phases of broadband adoption. The model which gives the most accurate results is identified. Finally, in order to enable the usage of this model within a whole broadband service life cycle, as well as to include a greater number of explanatory parameters in predictive modelling process, an enhanced predictive modelling process is proposed.