MADYMO simulation of children in cycle accidents: A novel approach in risk assessment

摘要

Head injuries are a significant cause of death and injury to child cyclists both on and off the road. Current evaluations of the effectiveness of cycle helmets rely on simplified mechanical testing or the analysis of aggregated accident statistics. This paper presents a direct evaluation of helmet efficacy by using computational modelling to simulate a range of realistic accident scenarios, including loss of control, collision with static objects and vehicle impact. A 6-year-old cyclist was modelled (as a Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy), in addition to a typical children's bicycle and a vehicle using the MADYMO dynamics software package. Simulations were performed using ranges of cyclist position, cycle speed and vehicle speed with and without a helmet that meets current standards. Wearing a cycle helmet was found to reduce the probability of head injuries, reducing the average probability of fatality over the scenarios studied from 40% to 0.3%. Similarly, helmet wearing reduced the probability of neck injuries (average probability of fatality reduced from 11% to 1 %). There was no evidence that helmet wearing increased the severity of brain or neck injuries caused by rotational accelerations; in fact these were slightly reduced. Similarly, there was no evidence that increased cycling speed, such as might result from helmet related risk compensation, increased the probability of head injury.