CAR OCCUPANT SAFETY IN FRONTAL CRASHES: A PARAMETER STUDY OF VEHICLE MASS, IMPACT SPEED, AND INHERENT VEHICLE PROTECTION

摘要

A new mathematical model was developed to estimate average injury and fatality rates in frontal car-to-car crashes for changes in vehicle fleet mass, impact speed distribution, and inherent vehicle protection. The estimates were calculated from injury/fatality risk data, delta-V distribution and collision probability of two vehicles, where delta V-depends on impact speed and mass of the colliding vehicles. The impact speed distribution was assumed to be unaffected by a change in fleet mass distribution. The results showed that safety in frontal crashes would improve 27-35/100 by a 10/100 increase in fatality risk parameters, which reflected substantial improvement in inherent vehicle protection. A 40/100 safety improvement was attained by a 10/100 impact speed reduction. Consequences of vehicle fleet mass were not as strong, but depended on the average mass ratio of the fleet. A reduction in mass range would be the most beneficial, while a uniform mass reduction of 20/100 would increase the fatality rate by 5.4/100. The model estimates trends in traffic safety and may help to identify priorities in active and passive safety.