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Investigating hierarchical effects of adaptive signal control system on crash severity using random-parameter ordered regression models incorporating observed heterogeneity

机译:采用随机参数有序回归模型调查自适应信号控制系统对碰撞严重性的分层效应。包含观察到的异质性

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By handling conflicting traffic movements and establishing dynamic coordination between intersections in real time, the Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can potentially improve the operation and safety of signalized intersections on a corridor. This study identifies the hierarchical effects of ASCS on the crash severity by exploring the heterogeneous effect of ASCS on the crash severity. Four different random-parameter ordered regression models (two ordered probit models, and two ordered logit models) are developed and compared. The analysis reveals that the random-parameter ordered probit and logit models (ROP and ROL) with observed heterogeneity perform better than the random-parameter ordered probit and logit models (RP and RL) without observed heterogeneity in terms of the Akaike information criteria and the goodness of fit of the model. The ROP model performs better than the ROL model in terms of classification model performance measures. The ROP model enables parameters (i.e., the coefficients of the explanatory variables) to vary as a function of explanatory variables as well as across observations, thus accounting for both observed (captured by available explanatory variables) and unobserved (not captured by available explanatory variables) heterogeneity. The analysis reveals that the presence of ASCS is associated with lower crash severity. In this study, observed heterogeneity of ASCS effects on the crash severity is captured by variables related to the intersection and corridor features. Other contributing factors besides ASCS, such as annual average daily traffic, speed limit, lighting, peak period, crash type (rear-end, angle), and pedestrian involvements, are also associated with the probability of crash severity. Unobserved heterogeneity of the effect of angle crash type on the crash severity is found to exist across the observations. The findings of this research have practical implications for establishing ASCS implementation guidelines in lowering the probability of higher crash severity.
机译:通过处理冲突的交通量,并实时建立交叉口之间的动态协调,自适应信号控制系统(ASCS)有可能提高在走廊的操作和信号交叉口的安全性。这项研究确定通过探索ASCS对碰撞严重程度的异构作用,对碰撞的严重程度ASCS的层次效果。四种不同的随机参数有序回归模型(两个有序概率模型,以及两个的Logit模型)的开发和比较。的分析表明,随机参数有序概率和分对数模型(ROP和ROL)与观察到的异质性的赤池信息准则和术语进行优于随机参数有序概率和分对数模型(RP和RL)没有观察到的异质性该模型的拟合优度。该ROP模型进行比在分类模型性能指标方面ROL模型。在ROP模型使参数(即,解释变量的系数),以改变作为解释变量的函数,以及跨观测,从而占两者观察到(通过可用的解释变量捕获)和未观察到的(不是由可用的解释变量捕获)异质性。分析显示,ASCS的存在与较低碰撞的严重程度有关。在这项研究中,对碰撞严重程度ASCS影响观察到的异质性是由相关的交叉点和走廊特征变量捕获。除了其他ASCS促成因素,如年平均日流量,速度极限,照明,高峰期,碰撞类型(追尾,角度),以及行人的参与,也与碰撞严重程度的概率相关联。对碰撞严重程度的角度碰撞类型的效果未观察到的异质性被发现在整个观测存在。这项研究的发现对于降低较高的碰撞严重程度的概率建立ASCS实施准则的实际意义。

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