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Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

机译:未来气候对加拿大东部北方森林中四种主要北方树种径向生长的影响

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摘要

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
机译:立即表型变异和进化适应气候变化的滞后效应似乎是树木对气候变暖的反应中的两个关键过程。这项研究考察了两种生长模型中的这些成分,以预测加拿大东部未来气候预测下宽阔的纬度梯度下四种主要的北方物种桦(Betula papyrifera),松树(Pinus bankiana),云杉(Picea mariana)和胡杨(Populus tremuloides)的直径增长变化。校准并交叉验证了9个纬度的34个林分的气候增长响应模型。构建了气候-增长关系随时间变化的自适应响应模型(A模型)和关系随时间恒定的固定响应模型(F模型),以预测未来的增长。对于前者,我们假设根据南部地区的当前气候提供了北部未来条件的模拟,我们研究了如何使用从南部纬度当前生长的林分得出的生长气候方程来预测北部纬度的未来生长。对于后者,我们测试了是否会使用从给定本地林分获得的生长-气候方程式最大程度地预测林分的未来增长,假设由于遗传限制而对气候的反应滞后。两种模型都预测,由于温度更高的良性,北部林分将出现大幅增长,而由于潜在的温暖温度引起的干旱胁迫,南部林分将出现最小的增长变化。 A模型展示了一个不断变化的环境,而F模型展示了对未来变暖的持续增长响应。随着时间的流逝,我们可以预测对与当前条件相关的气候响应(F模型)与对未来气候的更适应响应(A模型)之间的逐渐过渡。我们的建模方法提供了一个模板,用于预测北半球中高纬度地区树木生长对气候变暖的响应。

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