Time-series study of cardiovascular rates in India: A systematic analysis between 1990 and 2017

摘要

Cardiovascular disease represents a significant public health issue and places an immense burden on India's citizens, families, health systems, and the population. Predictive models provide structure and direction in anticipating future needs. This time-series study employed Box–Jenkins time series modeling to forecast 2030 prevalence and mortality rates of stroke, ischemic heart disease, and cardiovascular disease. The 2030 projected cardiovascular disease prevalence rate was predicted to increase to 5.26% (95% prediction interval, 5.19%–5.28%), with major contributors being stroke and ischemic heart disease. The authors propose increased investment across the continuum of care to efficaciously promote, prevent, and rehabilitate cardiovascular disease.