Using a hybrid agent-based and equation based model to test school closure policies during a measles outbreak

摘要

Infectious disease outbreaks are a major threat to global health while emerging diseases such as COVID-19, SARS, Ebola, and MERS tend to grab the biggest headlines infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and mumps are becoming more prevalent due to a reduction in vaccination rates and global travel. In 2018 there were almost 10 million cases of measles with 142,000 deaths around the world and in 2019 there were three times as many cases reported as in 2018 [1]. As outbreaks get larger, many governments try to impose control measures by closing schools, starting vaccination campaigns, or limiting public events. In order to help mitigate outbreaks and choose the best interventions it is important to understand as much as we can about outbreak dynamics. An intervention is not useful if it takes up resources and does nothing to alter the course of an outbreak or makes an outbreak worse. Additionally an intervention that only has a minor impact on an outbreak but uses a considerable amount of resources might not be the best strategy. However, it is difficult to test if an intervention works during a real outbreak. One main reason for this is there is no control scenario to compare what would have happened if the intervention was not implemented. So it is difficult to determine what was a result of the intervention and what would have happened if the intervention was not implemented.