A New Transmission Route for the Propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus

摘要

In animals, two dominant organs are infected by coronaviruses, the respiratory tract and the gut. In past epidemics, a shift from the lung to the gut or vice versa has been observed. Analysis of the SARS episode in 2003 had suggested the possibility of a “double epidemic” explaining the absence of severe cases in Shanghai at the time. Here, using data from Wuhan and Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shenzhen, we discuss whether the present respiratory contagion route for SARS-CoV-2 might have also resulted from faecal contamination. We noticed that the propagation of the disease in the city of Wuhan underwent an original course. Besides the expected respiratory route, the disease appeared to have been greatly facilitated by a secondary propagation route, thus substantiating the beneficial effect of an effective quarantine. By contrast, a similar situation based on early data did not prevail in Hong Kong or Singapore. Our work shows how health authorities could decide to orient their prevention measures, depending on the analysis of ongoing epidemics, as a function of the identification of a secondary route in parallel with the prevailing one. Our model could also help highlight voluntarily or accidentally biased data collection.